Regarding the industry's generally optimistic mass-production timelines, CATL explicitly predicts that it will be difficult to achieve installation of all-solid-state batteries in vehicles at a million-unit scale before 2030, as widespread adoption faces dual constraints regarding performance and cost.
For a long time, CATL has maintained a steady, dual-track strategy for solid-state batteries. On one hand, the company is advancing the mass production of condensed-state semi-solid-state batteries to serve as short-term transitional products for high-end vehicle models. On the other, it continues to invest in R&D for sulfide-based all-solid-state battery pilot lines; it has built a world-leading solid-state R&D team and holds a vast portfolio of core patents, yet it has consistently refrained from announcing aggressive mass-production schedules.
Beyond the nine-level technical roadmap, Zeng Yuqun,The ceo of CATL, has outlined three essential hurdles for the implementation of solid-state batteries. He challenges the market's simplistic notion that "technological breakthroughs automatically lead to mass production," pointing out instead that the commercialization of solid-state batteries is a systemic, full-chain undertaking spanning upstream materials, midstream manufacturing, and downstream consumer markets.
The first hurdle is the technical roadmap—specifically, mastering the underlying technologies associated with the nine levels of maturity. The industry currently faces multiple parallel pathways—sulfide, oxide, and polymer—each with its own limitations. Regardless of the chosen path, long-term process iteration is required; a breakthrough in a single material alone cannot support mass production.
The second hurdle is the product roadmap, which tests supply chain integration and vehicle-level safety and reliability. Even if laboratory technology meets the required standards, scaling up production first requires solving the problem of securing a stable supply of scarce raw materials, such as solid electrolytes and lithium-metal anodes. Furthermore, battery cells must pass rigorous automotive-grade validation—including tens of thousands of charge-discharge cycles, high- and low-temperature durability tests, and vehicle-level nail-penetration thermal runaway tests—to ensure consistent quality and safety across mass-produced units.
The third hurdle is the commercialization roadmap, which ultimately hinges on balancing market acceptance and cost. Initial R&D and manufacturing costs for solid-state batteries remain prohibitively high; even if small-scale vehicle installation is achieved, these batteries would likely be limited to ultra-luxury models costing over a million yuan, resulting in retail prices too steep for the mass market to absorb.
Currently, the industry largely focuses on the initial technical hurdle while often overlooking two subsequent core challenges—supply chain management and cost-market dynamics—leading to an underestimation of the difficulties involved in industrialization. As a market leader commanding half of the global power battery market and controlling the entire upstream and downstream lithium-ion battery supply chain, CATL’s R&D progress and strategic rationale serve as vital benchmarks for the industry.
With their core advantages of high energy density, superior safety, and extended range, solid-state batteries represent the clear long-term trajectory for power batteries; the industry-wide commitment to increasing R&D investment in this area is unquestionable. However, the key message conveyed by Zeng Yuqun at Davos warrants deep reflection across the sector: a technological breakthrough is merely the starting point, and industrialization requires surmounting three distinct, long-term hurdles—technology, productization, and commercialization.
For the market, it is essential to view corporate mass-production timelines objectively. Industry development should be "event-driven" rather than "time-driven," prioritizing steady, large-scale implementation only after substantive breakthroughs are achieved regarding core bottlenecks such as interfaces, materials, and costs. Amidst a protracted cycle of technological iteration, the true path to the widespread adoption of solid-state batteries lies in patiently overcoming fundamental challenges and perfecting the supporting supply chain ecosystem.
