A new wave of price increases has arrived in the energy storage cell market. As the current mainstream and mature model, 314Ah energy storage cells from leading manufacturers are approaching the 0.4 yuan/Wh threshold . If the market was still in a bargaining tug-of-war between "cost inversion" and "price transmission lag" before the Chinese New Year, price hikes are now imminent.
Under the combined effects of rising upstream raw material prices, sustained strong downstream demand, and structural shortages of certain products, energy storage cell prices are accelerating into an upward trajectory .
The most significant shock to the energy storage industry chain after the 2026 Spring Festival comes from upstream raw materials. Recently, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports (including goods in transit). Affected by this news, domestic lithium carbonate futures prices have rapidly risen, approaching the 190,000 yuan/ton mark, representing an increase of over 170% compared to the low point of 70,000 yuan/ton in October 2025 .
Simultaneously, prices of key auxiliary materials such as electrolytes, copper foil, and aluminum foil have also risen. Previously loss-making lithium iron phosphate material enterprises have initiated a "collective price increase" mode, further pushing up the overall cost of the industry chain .
Driven by the sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, cost pressures are gradually transmitting to the core cell manufacturing segment of the energy storage industry chain. Institutional research data shows that in the fourth quarter of last year, 314Ah energy storage cell prices from leading manufacturers were approximately 0.31-0.34 yuan/Wh, while third- and fourth-tier manufacturers were below 0.30 yuan/Wh. By February 2026, leading cell manufacturers' prices have risen to 0.38-0.40 yuan/Wh, with third- and fourth-tier manufacturers following suit to around 0.33 yuan/Wh .
From a theoretical cost perspective, cells have climbed from around 0.28 yuan/Wh in the second half of last year to the current approximately 0.37 yuan/Wh . In just a few months, the theoretical cost per Wh has increased by about 0.09 yuan, representing a growth of over 30%. This demonstrates that cost increases from the raw material end are not gentle linear transmissions but rather exhibit step-like sharp rises.
Industry insiders point out that adjustments to export tax rebate policies have become the direct trigger for this round of cell price increases. The value-added tax export rebate rate for battery products has been reduced from 9% to 6% (effective April 1), although this only brings about 0.01 yuan/Wh in cost fluctuations, it has triggered a stockpiling frenzy in the price-sensitive energy storage market. Companies' advance "order locking" has amplified demand, further exacerbating cell shortages .
Meanwhile, 314Ah cells are precisely at the 500+Ah replacement node, with battery companies generally no longer expanding 314Ah cell production on a large scale. Most 500+Ah cell capacity will only be released on a large scale in the second half of this year. The production ramp-up and certification cycles make it difficult to fill the supply-demand gap in the short term, intensifying price pressure .
Lithium carbonate prices have surged over 170% since October 2025, driving up energy storage cell costs.
Sustained strong demand further amplifies the supply gap. Domestically, independent energy storage projects have seen improved returns after the implementation of capacity pricing mechanisms, with IRR (internal rate of return) recovering from less than 5% to 8%-12%. Combined with bulk procurement by central/state-owned enterprises, comprehensive predictions from multiple institutions and industry analysis suggest that China's energy storage system installed capacity is expected to reach over 200GWh in 2026, representing year-on-year growth potentially exceeding 35% .
Overseas markets are experiencing diversified growth, with stable demand in Europe and Australia, explosive growth in Middle Eastern markets, and Africa becoming an emerging hotspot. AI data center development in the United States and Europe's energy transition are driving energy storage demand, with public information indicating that energy storage installations in these two regions may reach 70+GWh and 40+GWh respectively in 2026. Chinese energy storage companies are accelerating their overseas expansion, with overseas orders exceeding 12GWh in January alone this year .
High demand growth combined with rigid supply has led to continuous cost pressure transmission along the industry chain. Energy storage system integration costs have increased, with bidding prices showing signs of rising in January. Corporate profit margins are under pressure, and industry consolidation is accelerating. The "Notice on Improving the Generation-Side Capacity Pricing Mechanism" jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration at the end of January (NDRC Price [2026] No. 114) has, for the first time at the national level, established that the "capacity value" of energy storage can be converted into stable returns, with a compensation standard temporarily set at 330 yuan/kW·year. The implementation of this policy provides price buffers for end markets, increasing downstream tolerance for cell price increases .
The irreversible rise in upstream raw materials is forcing cell factories to restore profit margins. As previously low-priced lithium carbonate inventories are gradually depleted, the model of some cell factories sacrificing profits or even incurring losses to maintain market share has become unsustainable. Cells from new production cycles must bear the current high raw material costs, leading to corresponding market price increases. Price increases are not only demands for break-even but also defenses against future raw material uncertainties. With downstream project commencement and rigid delivery demands approaching, the industry chain's acceptance of price increases is forced to improve, gradually opening price transmission channels .
Signals of price recovery have already appeared in bidding markets. In the State Power Investment Corporation's 7GWh energy storage cell procurement project (requiring cell capacity ≥314Ah) opened on February 9, four winning companies' bid prices ranged from 0.325-0.355 yuan/Wh. In the China General Nuclear Power Group's 7.2GWh energy storage system procurement project opened on February 14, six pre-winning companies' bid prices ranged from 0.491-0.530 yuan/Wh, both showing recovery from previous lows . This indicates that the market can accept reasonable price increases in exchange for product safety and quality assurance.
After experiencing brutal price wars over the past two years, the energy storage industry's competitive logic is undergoing fundamental changes in 2026. Upstream raw material price increases have ended bottomless price wars, forcing the industry to return to rationality; midstream large-scale production of large cells has initiated technology cost reduction cycles; downstream electricity market reforms are reshaping demand structures .
In this new cycle, simple capacity expansion can no longer build moats—upstream resource control, midstream large cell yield rates, downstream globalization channels, and electricity trading capabilities are becoming new thresholds for corporate competition .
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